Technology Forecasting

As the paper declares conventionally technology forecasting has been based on the application of mathematical tools of modest sophistication to the analysis of trends that have been discernible from the past to deduce future development of the particular technology. However, as technology changed at a very fast rate, the kind of stability that was inherent in technology development till the end of World War II began to give way to an onslaught of technologies since the late sixties.
According to the report findings the coming of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) added an entirely new dimension to the effect and impact of technology on business and heir management. The unprecedented development of ICT, and the accompanying proliferation of computers, peripherals and communication equipment not only in all aspects of business but also in all walks of life and fields of work and activity resulted in technology playing a critical and determining role in business and business strategy. “Now we are at the early stages of another revolution – a revolution in business… New information technologies make this revolution possible.” Such rapid and radical changes also meant that the assumptions that could be made on the stable technology trends of the pre-ICT era were no longer possible as the technology trends themselves became very unstable and transient in nature. The high range of available technology choices and the growing complexity in business led to a complexity of the overall environment to which Technology Forecasting had to adapt itself.

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